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2003). On the use of Bayesian Belief Networks for the prediction of software productivity. Information and Software Technology, 45(1), 51–60. 1016/S0950-5849(02)00163-5 Standish Group International. (1995). The Chaos Report. educause. pdf Sutherland, J. (2004). Agile development: Lessons learned from the first scrum. pdf. , & Nonaka, I. (1986). The new new product development game. Harvard Business Review, Jan-Feb. , & Pietschker, A. (2006). Software project level estimation model framework based on Bayesian Belief Networks.
1999). Extreme programming explained: Embrace change. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Professional. , & Stamelos, I. (2004). Software process modeling with Bayesian belief networks. In 10th International Software Metrics Symposium Chicago. Boehm, B. (1981). Software engineering economics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Briand, L. , & Maxwell, K. D. (1999). An assessment and comparison of common software cost estimation modeling techniques. In 21st International Conference on Software Engineering, ICSE 1999, (pp.
In press). The model is not limited to productivity predictions. By adding a node which sums the Vi distributions, we can create predictions of delivered functionality, si, after each iteration.. Taking the median values of the si distributions and comparing them to the actual functionality delivered, we can determine the magnitude of relative errors (MRE) for each si. The mean values of the MREs give a good overall measure of the accuracy of the model. 51, an error of over 50%. 026 - an extraordinary level of accuracy for a software process model.